By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders! Here’s our weekly update diving deep into the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, providing insights into current market sentiment and highlighting potential trading opportunities.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -66,333 (long positions increased by 8,503; short positions decreased by 18,307)
- Commercials: Net long 61,855 (long positions increased by 1,834; short positions increased by 31,186)
- % Long Ratio: 21.97%
Speculators significantly reduced their shorts, increasing bullish sentiment. With still considerable room for additional longs, CAD strength remains a promising trade opportunity.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -20,056 (long positions decreased by 1,383; short positions decreased by 2,595)
- Commercials: Net long 19,166 (long positions decreased by 10,538; short positions decreased by 9,862)
- % Long Ratio: 23.25%
Despite a slight reduction in overall positioning, CHF still has room for further bullish moves. The sentiment shift could continue supporting CHF strength.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 42,857 (long positions decreased by 4,794; short positions increased by 3,983)
- Commercials: Net short -41,945 (long positions decreased by 14,945; short positions decreased by 33,457)
- % Long Ratio: 62.63%
GBP positioning remains neutral, offering no clear directional bias. Given the current data, I won’t be making GBP trade decisions solely based on this week’s COT data.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 130,877 (long positions decreased by 8,594; short positions increased by 5,124)
- Commercials: Net short -148,173 (long positions decreased by 37,129; short positions decreased by 58,033)
- % Long Ratio: 79.70%
JPY remains notably overbought. The crowded long positioning increases the risk of bearish momentum. Proceed with caution if considering new long JPY positions.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 101,553 (long positions increased by 12,057; short positions increased by 3,529)
- Commercials: Net short -161,021 (long positions decreased by 34,428; short positions decreased by 24,663)
- % Long Ratio: 64.93%
EUR positioning provides no clear actionable insights. Until clearer trends emerge, I’ll refrain from using EUR data to guide trade decisions.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -1,273 (long positions increased by 5,259; short positions decreased by 14,703)
- Commercials: Net long 140 (long positions decreased by 34,044; short positions decreased by 13,401)
- % Long Ratio: 47.91%
NZD has significantly improved from below 20% to nearly 48%, with ample room for further bullish positioning. This marks a strong bullish outlook for NZD.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -69,944 (long positions decreased by 2,803; short positions decreased by 3,357)
- Commercials: Net long 65,380 (long positions decreased by 59,054; short positions decreased by 60,664)
- % Long Ratio: 18.96%
AUD shows a robust bullish setup with plenty of space available for additional long positions. Expect continued AUD strength as positioning evolves.
Final Thoughts
This week’s COT data highlights bullish potential for CAD, CHF, NZD, and AUD due to the current positioning and available room for sentiment shifts. Traders should exercise caution with JPY, given its crowded, overbought status. EUR and GBP remain neutral, providing no clear signals.
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Stay disciplined and trade smart. I’ll see you again next week!
— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)