A decisive week shaped by geopolitical escalation, inflation pressures, and cross-asset volatility signals.
By Takezo Trading | 28/03/26
Reading Time: 8–10 minutes
This Week’s Bottom Line
- Macro Driver: Geopolitical escalation (USA–Iran conflict) is the dominant force, feeding directly into inflation expectations via rising energy prices.
- Market Regime: Risk-off, cautious — with underlying inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.
- Gold: Consolidation phase after a strong run; short-term correction underway.
- Oil: Rising due to supply disruption — a key inflation transmission channel.
- Critical Risk: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade and energy supply chains.
Strategic Positioning
- Japanese carry trade vulnerability amid rising energy costs
- Supply chain disruptions from escalating war conditions
- Oil-driven inflation pressures across global economies
- Potential forced policy tightening (especially from Japan)
A key structural risk emerges here:
If Japan faces rising energy costs due to constrained oil supply, inflation could force the Bank of Japan to tighten, triggering a global unwind of carry trades — a historically destabilizing event.
- Elevated gold prices (safe-haven demand)
- Volatility spike: VIX at 31.05
- Active regional war involving major global powers
This is a classic conflict-driven market environment:
- Short-term → flight to safety
- Medium/long-term → inflationary expansion
FX Watchlist — High-Conviction Setups
- EURUSD – SELL
- GBPUSD – SELL
- USDJPY – BUY
- USDCAD – BUY
- USDCHF – BUY
- EURGBP – SELL
- EURJPY – BUY
- EURCAD – SELL
- GBPJPY – BUY
- CADJPY – BUY
- AUDNZD – BUY
- AUDCHF – BUY
Trades Aligned Across 3 Timeframes
- AUDUSD – BUY
- EURAUD – SELL
- EURNZD – SELL
- EURCHF – SELL
- GBPCAD – SELL
- GBPAUD – SELL
- GBPNZD – SELL
- GBPCHF – SELL
- AUDJPY – BUY
- NZDJPY – BUY
- CHFJPY – BUY
- AUDCAD – BUY
- NZDCAD – BUY
- CADCHF – SELL
- NZDCHF – BUY
What Happened Last Week
Interest Rates
| Currency | Rate |
|---|---|
| USD | 3.75% |
| EUR | 2.15% |
| GBP | 3.75% |
| NZD | 2.25% |
| AUD | 4.10% |
| CAD | 2.25% |
| CHF | 0% |
| JPY | 0.75% |
10-Year Bond Yields
| Region | Yield |
|---|---|
| USD | 4.428% |
| JPY | 2.379% |
| EUR | 3.109% |
| GBP | 4.981% |
| AUD | 5.162% |
Equities vs Gold (Relative Strength)
- S&P 500 vs Gold: 1.42
- DAX vs Gold: 5.71
- CAC40 vs Gold: 1.97
- FTSE 100 vs Gold: 2.94
- Nikkei 225 vs Gold: 0.074
Volatility
- VIX: 31.05
Commodities
- Gold/Oil Ratio: 44.58
This ratio provides critical macro insight:
- Oil rising → inflation pressure
- Gold holding elevated → persistent uncertainty
For context please read my post here: https://takezotrading.com/the-gold-to-oil-ratio-a-historical-and-practical-guide/
Event Risk & Data Watchlist
Tier 1 — Regime-Changing Risks
- Ongoing USA–Iran conflict escalation
- Energy supply disruption via Strait of Hormuz
- Inflation transmission through oil prices
- Volatility expansion
Positioning Insight
For detailed positioning flows, refer to your latest COT analysis: https://takezotrading.com/commitment-of-traders-update-march-29th-2026/