By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders. We’re diving straight into this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data, where sentiment shifts continue to reveal solid opportunities across the major currencies.
Let’s break it down.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -31,231 (longs -4,368; shorts +10,621)
- Commercials: Net long +35,724
- % Long Ratio: 41.16%
Speculators added meaningfully to short exposure this week while trimming longs — a clear bearish tilt from the fast money. Commercials remain firmly net long.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -36,937 (longs +682; shorts +1,422)
- Commercials: Net long +46,775
- % Long Ratio: 12.69%
CHF positioning is oversold. At a 12.69% long ratio, speculators are about as bearish on the Swissie as they get. Commercials sit heavily on the other side. This is the kind of extreme that tends to set up mean-reversion opportunities — one to watch closely.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net short -64,307 (longs -11,530; shorts +9,718)
- Commercials: Net long +68,698
- % Long Ratio: 33.96%
Sterling saw aggressive selling from speculators this week — longs cut by more than 11,500 contracts while shorts piled on nearly 10,000. Bearish conviction is building, but commercials are absorbing the supply.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net short -93,905 (longs +6,448; shorts +25,251)
- Commercials: Net long +90,766
- % Long Ratio: 34.71%
The yen carries the largest absolute net short position on the board. Speculators added longs this week, but added nearly four times as many shorts — net positioning continues to deepen on the bearish side. Commercials are mirror-image long.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long +33,513 (longs +9,249; shorts +15,936)
- Commercials: Net short -66,535
- % Long Ratio: 53.87%
The Euro is one of only two currencies where speculators sit net long. Interestingly, shorts grew faster than longs this week, so conviction on the bullish side is softening even though net positioning remains positive.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -40,613 (longs +473; shorts +1,936)
- Commercials: Net long +43,497
- % Long Ratio: 18.88%
NZD is oversold. Joining CHF in extreme territory, the Kiwi sits at an 18.88% long ratio — speculators are crowded heavily short while commercials lean firmly long. Another mean-reversion candidate on the radar.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net long +85,644 (longs +783; shorts +129)
- Commercials: Net short -109,572
- % Long Ratio: 69.69%
The Aussie is the standout on the long side.
Final Thoughts
This week’s data tells a consistent story: speculators are leaning bearish across most of the G10, with commercials taking the other side of the trade in nearly every market.
The two clearest extremes are at opposite ends of the spectrum:
- CHF (12.69%) and NZD (18.88%) are flashing oversold — speculative shorts are crowded, commercials are heavily long.
EUR remains the only other speculator net-long currency, but the rate of short-building suggests some softening of conviction.
When positioning reaches extremes, the COT report doesn’t tell you when the turn comes — but it does tell you where the fuel is building. CHF, and NZD, to keep on the watchlist this week.
— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)