By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back to our weekly dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) data! This week continues to highlight some compelling setups, especially in the commodity-linked currencies. Here’s my full breakdown:
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -103,898 (longs decreased by 2,211, shorts decreased by 2,174)
- Commercials: Net long 105,002 (longs decreased by 4,044, shorts increased by 3,936)
% Long Ratio: 14.11%
Still sitting deep in net short territory. There’s great potential for CAD strength as the positioning is far from saturated on the long side.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -25,483 (longs decreased by 1,843, shorts decreased by 127)
- Commercials: Net long 25,454 (longs increased by 955, shorts increased by 799)
% Long Ratio: 15.62%
Plenty of room for speculative longs to build. CHF remains well-positioned for more upside if sentiment shifts.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 35,379 (longs increased by 14,247, shorts increased by 2,861)
- Commercials: Net short -46,867 (longs increased by 1,358, shorts increased by 14,408)
% Long Ratio: 60.44%
This is neutral territory. Not enough of an edge here to use COT data for GBP confirmation or trade direction this week.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 164,012 (longs decreased by 2,708, shorts increased by 610)
- Commercials: Net short -183,698 (longs decreased by 352, shorts increased by 2,325)
% Long Ratio: 87.34%
JPY continues to sit in extremely overbought territory. This kind of crowded long positioning often precedes bearish reversals. Proceed with caution.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 79,474 (longs decreased by 1,716, shorts decreased by 6,737)
- Commercials: Net short -131,901 (longs increased by 4,510, shorts increased by 9,581)
% Long Ratio: 62.07%
Still too neutral. I won’t be using the COT data for EUR this week to drive any trading decisions.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -24,386 (longs decreased by 888, shorts decreased by 154)
- Commercials: Net long 24,368 (longs increased by 1,520, shorts decreased by 1,628)
% Long Ratio: 21.36%
Improving slowly. Up from under 20%, which shows there’s more room for long interest. NZD remains a decent bullish setup.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -61,180 (longs increased by 575, shorts increased by 2,678)
- Commercials: Net long 56,415 (longs decreased by 1,561, shorts increased by 1,560)
% Long Ratio: 20.77%
Still plenty of capacity for more AUD longs. The setup remains constructive for potential upside.
Final Thoughts:
- Bullish setups: CAD, CHF, NZD, AUD all offer meaningful upside potential due to under-positioning.
- Caution: JPY is very crowded on the long side and could reverse.
- Neutral/no edge: GBP and EUR remain unclear based on current COT data.
If you’re looking for more actionable insights or want to leverage this analysis for trade ideas, I offer access to the full raw dataset.
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https://takezotrading.com/brand/downloadable-raw-data
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
See you in the next update!
— Takezo