By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back traders! We’re diving straight into this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data, where sentiment shifts continue to reveal solid opportunities across major currencies.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -70,343 (Long positions increased slightly; shorts were reduced)
- Commercials: Net long 71,510
- % Long Ratio: 19.81%
CAD still presents a strong bullish scenario. The slight reduction in speculative shorts confirms sentiment may be turning more positive. I’m watching CAD closely for signs of further strength.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -26,065 (More shorts added, fewer longs held)
- Commercials: Net long 26,431
- % Long Ratio: 19.15%
CHF positioning also points towards potential upside. The market remains relatively under-owned, giving ample space for speculators to shift towards more bullish positions. Keep CHF firmly on your radar for upside potential.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 570 (Sharp drop in longs, large increase in shorts)
- Commercials: Net short -5,739
- % Long Ratio: 50.15%
GBP positioning remains neutral this week, offering little clarity. With no clear signals emerging, I’m setting aside GBP for now in my trading decisions.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 106,645 (Minor reduction in both longs and shorts)
- Commercials: Net short -117,360
- % Long Ratio: 74.00%
JPY continues to hover in dangerously overbought territory. This overcrowded positioning significantly raises the risk of a bearish reversal. Caution is advised for anyone looking to hold JPY longs.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 125,515 (Both longs and shorts increased notably)
- Commercials: Net short -177,713
- % Long Ratio: 66.90%
EUR data this week remains balanced and inconclusive. With no clear directional edge from this week’s data, I’ll avoid using EUR positioning for immediate trade decisions.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short 3,162 (Long positions reduced; shorts increased)
- Commercials: Net long 3,291
- % Long Ratio: 44.16%
NZD is another currency with neutral signals this week. Due to unclear sentiment shifts, I’ll remain neutral on NZD trades based solely on this week’s COT data.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -81,255 (Increased both long and short positions)
- Commercials: Net long 77,341
- % Long Ratio: 19.08%
AUD continues to provide one of the best bullish setups this week. Speculators remain significantly short, indicating ample room for bullish momentum if sentiment shifts positively. I’m keeping a close watch here.
Final Thoughts
This week’s data reinforces bullish scenarios for CAD, CHF, and AUD, each offering substantial upside potential. JPY remains heavily overbought, warranting caution. GBP, EUR, and NZD provide no immediate clear trade setups this week.
As always, disciplined trading and patience pay off. Until next week—trade smart and stay informed.
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— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)