By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back traders! We’re diving straight into this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data, where sentiment shifts continue to reveal solid opportunities across major currencies.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -76,433 (Long positions decreased by -2,202; shorts Increased by 3,888)
- Commercials: Net long 77,288
- % Long Ratio: 17.67%
CAD still in the over bought territory, there is a good case for CAD strength.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -24,034 (Slight addition to the long positions 936, shorts decreased by -1,095)
- Commercials: Net long 28,290
- % Long Ratio: 21.44%
CHF positioning also points towards potential upside due to the long ratio being 21%. The market remains relatively under-owned, giving ample space for speculators to shift towards more bullish positions. Keep CHF firmly on your radar for upside potential.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net short -12,028 (Sharp drop in longs -5,961, increase in shorts by 6,637)
- Commercials: Net long 13,324
- % Long Ratio: 46.79%
GBP positioning remains neutral this week, offering little clarity. With no clear signals emerging, I’m setting aside GBP for now in my trading decisions based on COT data.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 89,243 (reduction in longs by -2,289, massive increase in the shorts by 15,113)
- Commercials: Net short -92,548
- % Long Ratio: 69.99%
JPY comes down from the dangerously overbought territory. This overcrowded positioning significantly raises the risk of a bearish reversal. Caution is advised for anyone looking to hold JPY longs.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 123,359 (increase longs by 461 and shorts increased by 2,617)
- Commercials: Net short -175,778
- % Long Ratio: 66.48%
EUR data this week remains balanced and inconclusive. With no clear directional edge from this week’s data, I’ll avoid using EUR positioning for immediate trade decisions.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -2,091 (Increased Long positions by 1,125; shorts increased by only 54)
- Commercials: Net long 1,163
- % Long Ratio: 46.30%
NZD is another currency with neutral signals this week. Due to unclear sentiment shifts, I’ll remain neutral on NZD trades based solely on this week’s COT data.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -78,094 (Increased longs by 1,440 decreased short positions by -1,721)
- Commercials: Net long 75,042
- % Long Ratio: 20.22%
AUD continues to provide one of the best bullish setups this week. Speculators remain significantly short, indicating ample room for bullish momentum if sentiment shifts positively. I’m keeping a close watch here.
Final Thoughts
This week’s data reinforces bullish scenarios for CAD, CHF, and AUD, each offering substantial upside potential. JPY seems to be reversing now, warranting caution. GBP, EUR, and NZD provide no immediate clear trade setups this week.
As always, disciplined trading and patience pay off. Until next week—trade smart and stay informed.
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— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)