By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders! It’s that time again when we dive deep into the Commitment of Traders (COT) data to reveal the latest market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -71,608 (decreased longs by 1,805; increased shorts by 6,351)
- Commercials: Net long 68,694 (decreased longs by 825; decreased shorts by 8,549)
- % Long Ratio: 18.12%
Speculators continue to hold bearish views, but with plenty of room for bullish momentum to build. This scenario keeps the CAD strength narrative alive and interesting.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -22,196 (increased longs by 1,388; decreased shorts by 269)
- Commercials: Net long 20,777 (decreased longs by 265; increased shorts by 691)
- % Long Ratio: 21.67%
CHF shows clear potential for further bullish moves. Speculator positioning remains under-owned, providing room for increased bullish sentiment.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 33,194 (increased longs by 869; decreased shorts by 926)
- Commercials: Net short -43,542 (increased longs by 2,722; increased shorts by 2,293)
- % Long Ratio: 59.08%
GBP positioning remains neutral. Given the lack of a clear signal, I’ll refrain from making trading decisions based solely on GBP’s COT data this week.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 116,155 (decreased longs by 4,432; decreased shorts by 6,751)
- Commercials: Net short -128,680 (increased longs by 1,772; significantly decreased shorts by 20,405)
- % Long Ratio: 76.66%
JPY remains significantly overbought. The recent positioning shifts suggest this may be the initial stages of the bearish reversal we’ve been anticipating. Traders should exercise caution with JPY longs.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 120,596 (increased longs by 16,146; increased shorts by 3,087)
- Commercials: Net short -177,423 (increased longs by 9,040; significantly increased shorts by 25,799)
- % Long Ratio: 66.67%
EUR shows balanced positioning, offering no clear trading signals. I’ll hold off from using EUR data for trade decisions this week.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net long 4,921 (increased longs by 669; decreased shorts by 102)
- Commercials: Net short 6,939 (decreased longs by 503; increased shorts by 672)
- % Long Ratio: 57.45%
NZD remains neutral, without providing clear signals from the COT data. As such, I’ll not base trading decisions on NZD data this week.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -74,314 (increased longs by 2,267; increased shorts by 1,957)
- Commercials: Net long 68,145 (increased longs by 2,629; decreased shorts by 483)
- % Long Ratio: 19.26%
AUD offers substantial room for bullish positioning. With plenty of scope for additional long positions, AUD remains an attractive currency for potential upside.
Final Thoughts
This week’s data emphasizes continued bullish opportunities for CAD, CHF, and AUD, while signaling caution for JPY given its crowded long positioning and potential bearish reversal. GBP, EUR, and NZD remain neutral, offering no clear immediate trading signals.
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Stay disciplined and trade smart—I’ll see you next week!
— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)