By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders! It’s time for our weekly review of the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, revealing insights into the current market sentiment and potential trading opportunities. Here’s the latest positioning data and my take on what it means for the markets.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -93,143 (long positions increased by 984, short positions decreased by 14,319)
- Commercials: Net long 91,207 (long positions increased by 8,581, short positions increased by 27,999)
- % Long Ratio: 14.84%
With speculators significantly reducing short positions and still being heavily net short, there’s substantial room for increased bullish activity in CAD. This suggests continuing potential strength in the Canadian dollar.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -21,268 (long positions increased by 2,095, short positions decreased by 2,703)
- Commercials: Net long 19,842 (long positions increased by 2,452, short positions increased by 8,494)
- % Long Ratio: 23.25%
CHF positioning shows speculators are becoming less bearish, indicating considerable room for further bullish sentiment. Keep CHF on your radar for potential strength.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 51,634 (long positions increased by 7,404, short positions decreased by 9,015)
- Commercials: Net short -60,562 (long positions decreased by 13,923, short positions decreased by 2,326)
- % Long Ratio: 65.14%
The GBP remains in neutral territory based on positioning, with no clear trading signal emerging from this week’s data. I’ll stay cautious and avoid making trading decisions based purely on this data.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 144,595 (long positions decreased by 5,319, short positions increased by 1,235)
- Commercials: Net short -169,077 (long positions increased by 31,893, short positions increased by 25,462)
- % Long Ratio: 82.31%
JPY remains extremely overbought. The heavy long positioning among speculators increases the likelihood of bearish momentum developing soon. Traders should exercise caution when considering long JPY positions.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 93,025 (long positions increased by 5,968, short positions decreased by 4,293)
- Commercials: Net short -151,256 (long positions increased by 11,480, short positions increased by 24,451)
- % Long Ratio: 64.33%
EUR’s current positioning offers no clear directional edge. The balanced ratio suggests traders remain indecisive, prompting me to avoid EUR-based trade decisions solely on this week’s data.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -23,235 (long positions decreased by 219, short positions decreased by 2,658)
- Commercials: Net long 20,783 (long positions increased by 6,780, short positions increased by 9,598)
- % Long Ratio: 23.36%
The NZD continues its recovery from extreme bearish sentiment. There’s ample room for further bullish positioning, reinforcing the potential for NZD strength.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -69,944 (long positions slightly increased by 28, short positions increased by 6,817)
- Commercials: Net long 63,770 (long positions significantly increased by 22,806, short positions increased by 20,231)
- % Long Ratio: 20.35%
AUD mirrors NZD, with considerable space for additional bullish activity. The data strongly supports further potential upside in the AUD.
Final Thoughts
This week’s COT data highlights continued bullish potential for CAD, CHF, NZD, and AUD. Traders should remain cautious on JPY due to its extreme long positioning, while EUR and GBP provide no actionable signals based solely on the current data.
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Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Stay sharp, trade smart, and I’ll see you next week!
— Takezo