By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders. This week’s Commitment of Traders report continues to paint a picture of crowded positioning at both extremes of the G10 currency space, with speculators leaning aggressively long on one side and equally aggressively short on the other. Commercials — the smart money on the opposite side of the trade — are positioned against the specs in every single contract.
Let’s walk through the numbers and see where the opportunities are setting up.
Where Speculators Are Positioned
Sorted by % Long Ratio, the spread between the most-loved and most-hated currencies is wide right now:
| Currency | Net Spec Position | % Long Ratio | Commercial Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | +84,990 | 69.62% | -111,803 |
| EUR | +40,200 | 54.93% | -79,054 |
| CAD | -16,242 | 45.23% | +13,717 |
| GBP | -43,059 | 39.36% | +44,651 |
| JPY | -75,102 | 36.37% | +74,143 |
| NZD | -39,150 | 18.85% | +41,517 |
| CHF | -36,197 | 11.82% | +44,280 |
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net Short -16,242 (long 3,392, short 4,975)
- Commercials: Net Long +13,717
- % Long Ratio: 45.23%
The Loonie is the most balanced book in the report. A 45.23% long ratio means specs are leaning bearish but not committed, and commercial positioning is modest. There’s no clear edge here from the COT data — this is a wait-and-see currency until either side starts pushing.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net Short -36,197 (long -1,543, short 133)
- Commercials: Net Long +44,280
- % Long Ratio: 11.82% — oversold
CHF positioning is the most stretched in the entire report. At 11.82%, this is washed-out, capitulation-style sentiment from speculators. Commercials are net long 44,280 contracts on the other side. When positioning gets this lopsided, the asymmetry of risk shifts — the marginal seller is harder to find, and any spark of strength can force a rapid unwind from the short side.
This is, by COT positioning alone, the most contrarian setup in the report.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net Short -43,059 (long 17,032, short -3,817)
- Commercials: Net Long +44,651
- % Long Ratio: 39.36%
Sterling is leaning short but not yet at extreme readings. Commercials are net long by roughly the same magnitude that specs are short — a clean mirror image. Worth monitoring if the short build continues to extend over the coming weeks; we’re not at oversold yet, but the trajectory matters.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net Short -75,102 (long -8,880, short 4,484)
- Commercials: Net Long +74,143
- % Long Ratio: 36.37%
The Yen sits as the second-most-shorted currency in the report by raw size. At a -75,102 net short position, specs are deeply committed to the downside, and commercials have stepped in heavily against them with a +74,143 net long. The 36.37% long ratio is bearish but not at the extreme oversold thresholds we’ll see in CHF and NZD below. JPY shorts have been crowded for a while — at some point this will unwind, and when it does, it tends to move fast.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net Long +40,200 (long 6,528, short -1,470)
- Commercials: Net Short -79,054
- % Long Ratio: 54.93%
The Euro is the only other currency where speculators are net long, but the conviction is far more modest than in AUD. At a 54.93% long ratio, specs are tilted bullish but not extreme. The bigger story is on the commercial side, where hedgers are sitting on a net short of nearly 80,000 contracts — a meaningful imbalance that suggests producers and corporates are using current levels to lock in selling.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net Short -39,150 (long 2,783, short -6,318)
- Commercials: Net Long +41,517
- % Long Ratio: 18.85% — oversold
The Kiwi is firmly in oversold territory. A long ratio under 20% tells you specs have essentially abandoned the long side, and commercials are positioned the other way at over 41,000 net long. This is the kind of setup where you want to be alert for a sentiment shift. Crowded shorts at extreme readings tend to be the fuel for sharp short-covering rallies.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net Long +84,990 (long 7,586, short 1,270)
- Commercials: Net Short -111,803
- % Long Ratio: 69.62%
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any trading decisions.