By Takezo Trading | www.takezotrading.com
Welcome back, traders! It’s time to dig into this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data and uncover what the market positioning is revealing about potential currency moves.
CAD – Canadian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -82,156 (increased longs by 6,573, significantly increased shorts by 18,084)
- Commercials: Net long 91,895 (increased longs by 3,231, increased shorts by 12,195)
The % long ratio sits at 18.07%, showing plenty of space for further buying activity. The data indicates continued potential for CAD strength, with room for more long positions to emerge.
CHF – Swiss Franc
- Speculators: Net short -23,069 (increased longs by 1,885, increased shorts by 1,380)
- Commercials: Net long 22,999 (decreased longs by 1,266, increased shorts by 167)
CHF’s % long ratio remains below 20%, specifically at 19.61%. This setup suggests ample room for further bullish moves in CHF, positioning the currency well for potential strength.
GBP – British Pound
- Speculators: Net long 27,216 (decreased longs by 4,844, decreased shorts by 2,825)
- Commercials: Net short -32,059 (decreased longs by 1,961, decreased shorts by 4,638)
The % long ratio is at 59%. Given this, I won’t rely on GBP’s current COT data for any trade confirmations or decisions this week. Clearer signals are needed before acting on GBP.
JPY – Japanese Yen
- Speculators: Net long 172,268 (decreased longs by 9,782, decreased shorts by 5,191)
- Commercials: Net short -184,891 (increased longs by 968, decreased shorts by 317)
JPY is extremely overbought with a % long ratio of 88%. I’d strongly advise caution in placing any new long positions. The positioning suggests a potential shift towards bearish momentum ahead.
EUR – Euro
- Speculators: Net long 84,774 (significantly increased longs by 15,357, increased shorts by 6,302)
- Commercials: Net short -134,282 (increased longs by 1,125, increased shorts by 4,068)
EUR’s % long ratio sits at 62%. Similar to GBP, this data does not offer strong trading signals or clear directional bias, so I won’t use this for current EUR trade decisions.
NZD – New Zealand Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -22,612 (slightly increased longs by 19, decreased shorts by 504)
- Commercials: Net long 22,116 (increased longs by 205, increased shorts by 919)
With the % long ratio rising to 23% from under 20%, NZD still has considerable room for additional bullish positioning. This setup continues to support potential NZD strength.
AUD – Australian Dollar
- Speculators: Net short -49,346 (decreased longs by 736, decreased shorts by 238)
- Commercials: Net long 50,883 (decreased longs by 1,575, decreased shorts by 2,745)
AUD’s % long ratio increased to 25.42% from approximately 20%. There’s substantial room for more long positions to build, suggesting further bullish potential in AUD.
Final Thoughts
This week’s key takeaways:
- CAD, CHF, NZD, and AUD setups remain strong with room for bullish growth.
- JPY positioning signals caution due to extreme bullish sentiment.
- GBP and EUR provide no clear actionable insights from current data.
Stay patient, keep an eye on positioning shifts, and trade smart. See you next week for another update!
— Takezo
Data Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
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