A quick personal note before the numbers. I’m still tied up with my other businesses right now, so my regular blog schedule is on hold a little longer — thank you for bearing with me. I’ll be back to normal posting as soon as my time frees up. In the meantime I’ll keep this currency strength analysis going every week so you don’t miss a boat.
The method is the same as always. Each currency is measured against gold as a common yardstick across four timeframes — 1-year, 6-month, 3-month, and the current month (June). Comparing each currency’s strength against every other gives the pair direction (gold simply drops out of the comparison). The stronger currency is the one we buy; the weaker one is the one we sell. Nothing else is factored in — this is pure relative strength.
I’ve split the signals into two groups: pairs that line up the same way across all four timeframes, and pairs that line up across three of the four.
Confirmed across all 4 timeframes
These are the cleanest signals — strength agrees on every window. The theme is simple: JPY and CAD are the weakest currencies across the board, and AUD is the strongest, so the standouts are long AUD and short the yen and the loonie.
- AUD/JPY — Buy
- GBP/JPY — Buy
- EUR/JPY — Buy
- USD/JPY — Buy
- CHF/JPY — Buy
- NZD/JPY — Buy
- CAD/JPY — Buy
- AUD/CAD — Buy
- GBP/CAD — Buy
- EUR/CAD — Buy
- USD/CAD — Buy
- AUD/NZD — Buy
- AUD/CHF — Buy
Confirmed in 3 of the 4 timeframes
One window disagrees on each of these. In most cases it’s the current-month (June) read pulling against the longer frames — normal behaviour when the shortest window starts to turn before the rest. Lower conviction than the list above, but the weight of evidence still favours the direction shown.
- AUD/USD — Buy (June)
- NZD/USD — Buy (June)
- NZD/CAD — Buy (June)
- EUR/AUD — Sell (June)
- GBP/AUD — Sell (June)
- EUR/NZD — Sell (June)
- GBP/NZD — Sell (June)
- EUR/GBP — Sell (June)
- CAD/CHF — Sell (June)
- USD/CHF — Sell (June )
- EUR/USD — Sell (3-month )
- GBP/USD — Sell (3-month )
- NZD/CHF — Sell (3-month )
As always, this is currency strength only — your own entries, levels, and risk management decide the rest. See you next week.
Takezo…